← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 46% | 50% | 2.12 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
| Aves win | 24% | 22% | 4.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Aves |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mamadou Loum · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafik Halliche · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 190.00 | 371.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1521.78 | 1426.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.71 | -22.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 26.77 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |