← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 35% | 31% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.98 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 32% | 39% | 3.06 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 36' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 43' | ⚽ | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 48' | ⚽ | Bruno Lamas · CD Santa Clara |
| 53' | 🟨 | José Valencia · Feirense |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alfredo Stephens · CD Santa Clara |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Edinho · Feirense |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pedro Pacheco · CD Santa Clara |
| 65' | ⚽ | José Valencia · Feirense |
| 67' | 🟨 | Fábio Sturgeon · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 1041.00 | 1892.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1433.62 | 1514.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.59 | -0.69 |
| eye test v1 | -1.49 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |