← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 79% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 6.97 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 7% | 7% | 14.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 5.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1857.88 | 1541.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.13 | -33.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.69 | — |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |