← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Thu, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 51% | 43% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.36 | fair |
| Feirense win | 20% | 28% | 4.94 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Diga · Feirense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marco Soares · Feirense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marcão · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 26 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 916.00 | 1038.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1467.99 | 1430.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.65 | -25.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.19 | -1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |