← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 46% | 39% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.28 | value: +23% |
| CD Tondela win | 24% | 23% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 24' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Santa Clara |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kaio · CD Santa Clara |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 77' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | 🟥 | César Martins · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | ⚽ | Pité · CD Tondela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | ⚽ | Pité · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1888.00 | 1128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1527.98 | 1463.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.25 | -18.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |