← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 44% | 49% | 2.23 | value: +9% |
| Moreirense FC win | 28% | 24% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Gabrielzinho · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Heriberto Tavares · Moreirense FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Heriberto Tavares · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 32.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1555.20 | 1492.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.62 | 18.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |