← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 83% | 82% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 14% | 8.53 | value: +17% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 5% | 4% | 17.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 26' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 55' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 570.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1887.54 | 1557.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.41 | -37.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 33.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | — |
| state index | 1.83 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |