← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 60% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.04 | value: +6% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 16% | 20% | 6.26 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 1301.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1873.74 | 1762.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.61 | 27.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.25 | — |
| state index | 1.33 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |