← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 46% | 41% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 24% | 30% | 4.11 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 15' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 27' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 30' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marcão · Maritimo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Xavier · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟥 | Josip Vuković · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 88' | ⚽ | Cristian Arango · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cristian Arango · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 1117.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1454.08 | 1480.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.96 | -30.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |