← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 48% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
| Boavista win | 22% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Mateus · Boavista |
| 27' | 🟨 | Helton Leite · Boavista |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Nenê · Moreirense FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 36' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 36' | 🟥 | Neris · Boavista |
| 45' | ⚽ | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Raphael Silva · Boavista |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 174.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1483.60 | 1515.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.20 | 9.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |