← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Malheiro Pinto, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 37% | 34% | 2.62 | fair |
| Feirense win | 33% | 30% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.29 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 22' | 🟨 | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Edinho · Feirense |
| 53' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 67' | 🟨 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
| 68' | ⚽ | Dener · Portimonense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ricardo Ferreira · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 1026.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1441.38 | 1484.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.52 | 6.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.55 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.49 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |