← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 42% | 48% | 2.31 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
| Aves win | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 4' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 26' | ⚽ | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 36' | ⚽ | Henrique Almeida · Belenenses |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 68' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 71' | ⚽ | Henrique Almeida · Belenenses |
| 83' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 630.00 | 355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1536.49 | 1436.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.44 | 14.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |