← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 53% | 48% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.89 | value: +10% |
| Belenenses win | 22% | 24% | 4.39 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (og) | Gonçalo Silva · Rio Ave FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathan Buatu · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 64' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Fredy · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 15.00 | 624.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1559.52 | 1534.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.93 | 44.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |