← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 74% | 68% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 22% | 5.54 | value: +22% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 9% | 10% | 11.12 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 54' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 56' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 71' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 24 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1870.00 | 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1514.61 | 1884.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.59 | 16.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| league points | 17.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.21 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |