← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 40% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +4% |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bilel Aouacheria · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mamadou Loum · Moreirense FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Niltinho · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 897.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1495.91 | 1471.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.15 | 36.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |