← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 41% | 30% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.28 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 29% | 45% | 3.35 | value: +52% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Matheus Indio · Boavista |
| 34' | ⚽ | Rafael Lopes · Boavista |
| 42' | 🟨 | Cristian Arango · CD Tondela |
| 62' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 68' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 85' | 🟨 | Xavier · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateus · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 470.00 | 1110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.94 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1504.90 | 1464.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.87 | -11.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.03 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |