← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 75% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.58 | fair |
| Feirense win | 8% | 9% | 12.68 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 44' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 43.00 | 1018.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1758.99 | 1445.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.42 | -30.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 1.11 | -1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |