← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 42% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.11 | fair |
| Boavista win | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Matheus Indio · Boavista |
| 46' | 🟨 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
| 48' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 16 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 526.00 | 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1412.54 | 1505.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.94 | 1.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |