← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 50% | 50% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 22% | 25% | 4.49 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Accioly · CD Santa Clara |
| 24' | 🟨 | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ivanildo Fernandes · Moreirense FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marco Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ivanildo Fernandes · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟥 | Ivanildo Fernandes · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ukra · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 161.00 | 1864.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1482.33 | 1503.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.41 | -8.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 56.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |