← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 59% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.83 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 15% | 16% | 6.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcelo Goiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 35' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 50' | 🟨 | Icaro · CD Tondela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1103.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1469.26 | 1750.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.87 | 14.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 9.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.32 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.40 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |