← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 54% | 48% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.94 | value: +7% |
| CD Nacional win | 21% | 25% | 4.61 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Diogo Coelho · CD Nacional |
| 21' | ⚽ | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luis Farina · Aves |
| 32' | ⚽ | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 50' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 335.00 | 519.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1449.00 | 1399.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.82 | -2.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |