← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 84% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 7.87 | fair |
| Feirense win | 6% | 5% | 16.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alphonse · Feirense |
| 35' | 🟨 | João Silva · Feirense |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 57' | ⚽ (og) | Bruno Nascimento · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 68' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 89' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1279.00 | 1005.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1866.01 | 1448.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -51.00 | -38.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.16 | — |
| state index | 0.80 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |