← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 70% | 75% | 1.38 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.80 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 10% | 11% | 10.15 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Germán Conti · CD Tondela |
| 9' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 17' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 22' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 23' | 🟨 | Xavier · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 51' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 54' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 54' | 🟥 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 85' | 🟥 | Icaro · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1076.00 | 1259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1482.02 | 1861.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.16 | -53.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.64 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.80 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |