← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 66% | 74% | 1.46 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.51 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 12% | 10% | 7.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 88' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 527.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1893.47 | 1764.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.84 | -8.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 1.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.92 | 27.75 |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |