← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 46% | 2.80 | value: +30% |
| Maritimo win | 34% | 30% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Josip Vuković · Maritimo |
| 65' | ⚽ | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 76' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Witi · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 497.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1387.83 | 1505.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.44 | -39.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |