← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 42% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| Boavista win | 28% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Helton Leite · Boavista |
| 29' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Cardoso · Boavista |
| 41' | 🟨 | Eduardo Henrique · Belenenses |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mateus · Boavista |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rafael Lopes · Boavista |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fredy · Belenenses |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ousmane Drame · Belenenses |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 26 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 588.00 | 435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1516.69 | 1506.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.98 | -15.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |