← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +9% |
| Aves win | 33% | 29% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟥 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Diego Galo · Aves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | André Ferreira · Aves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 313.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1436.43 | 1587.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.06 | 28.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.82 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |