← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Malheiro Pinto, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 65% | 58% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.79 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 15% | 22% | 6.57 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kenji Gorré · CD Nacional |
| 35' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Felipe Lopes · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 60' | 🟨 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 89' | ⚽ | Witi · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Marakis · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 127.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1594.38 | 1381.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.59 | -19.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| league points | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 10.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |