← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 46% | 50% | 2.14 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Aves win | 25% | 24% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marcão · Chaves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 48' | ⚽ | André Luis · Chaves |
| 56' | ⚽ | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
| 69' | 🟨 | Niltinho · Chaves |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 80' | 🟨 | André Ferreira · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 857.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1530.13 | 1421.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.92 | -9.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |