← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39% | 33% | 2.51 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 26% | 2.99 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 29% | 41% | 3.42 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 12' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 26' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Edinho · Feirense |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 67' | ⚽ | João Silva · Feirense |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sergio Peña · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pedro Silva · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Nascimento · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 978.00 | 1069.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1473.90 | 1464.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.15 | -11.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.42 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |