← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 54% | 45% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.91 | value: +20% |
| Belenenses win | 21% | 24% | 4.54 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jonatan Lucca · Belenenses |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 51' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonatan Lucca · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 94.00 | 581.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1492.07 | 1533.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.58 | 19.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.05 | 27.78 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |