← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 85% | 88% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.38 | fair |
| Feirense win | 4% | 4% | 22.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 58' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alphonse · Feirense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 80' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 514.00 | 971.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1868.06 | 1475.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.65 | -17.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 21.04 | 23.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.31 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |