← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 46% | 40% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 25% | 32% | 3.85 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Moreirense FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 74' | ⚽ | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 119.00 | 1337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1434.63 | 1521.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.91 | -6.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 22.04 | 22.04 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |