← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 57% | 48% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.02 | value: +6% |
| Chaves win | 19% | 26% | 5.09 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 66' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Perdigão · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 118.00 | 848.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1587.46 | 1537.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.11 | -5.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| league points | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |