← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 73% | 76% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.30 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 9% | 11% | 11.32 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Belenenses |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alhassane Keita · Belenenses |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Eduardo Henrique · Belenenses |
| 42' | ⚽ | Alhassane Keita · Belenenses |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jardel · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 24 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 574.00 | 1244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1489.27 | 1917.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.92 | -0.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.55 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |