← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 47% | 42% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +6% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 26% | 28% | 3.81 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Bruno Lamas · CD Santa Clara |
| 17' | 🟨 | Luis Farina · Aves |
| 23' | ⚽ | César Martins · CD Santa Clara |
| 79' | ⚽ | Derley · Aves |
| 80' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟥 | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 299.00 | 1821.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1431.06 | 1521.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.69 | 24.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 54.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.94 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | — |