← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 43% | 52% | 2.25 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.18 | fair |
| Aves win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Cardoso · Boavista |
| 58' | 🟨 | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 63' | 🟨 | Issam El Adoua · Aves |
| 65' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Aves |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Bruno Gomes · Boavista |
| 74' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mato Miloš · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 401.00 | 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1504.26 | 1437.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.97 | 2.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -1.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |