← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 39% | 45% | 2.51 | value: +13% |
| FC Porto win | 31% | 29% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1224.00 | 493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1928.83 | 1894.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.65 | -8.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 24.83 | 26.23 |
| state index | 1.60 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |