← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 24% | 26% | 4.05 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Fernando Tissone · CD Nacional |
| 62' | ⚽ | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jota · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 1039.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1480.13 | 1386.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.44 | -10.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |