← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +3% |
| Chaves win | 31% | 32% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Mamadu Cande · CD Santa Clara |
| 56' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 73' | ⚽ | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1799.00 | 826.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1511.94 | 1546.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.34 | 13.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.17 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.62 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |