← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39% | 35% | 2.52 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.02 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 29% | 40% | 3.37 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 44' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Muriel · Belenenses |
| 84' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Feirense |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 948.00 | 552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1477.39 | 1487.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.35 | -11.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.30 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |