← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Malheiro Pinto, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +10% |
| Aves win | 35% | 32% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 26' | 🟨 | Rúben Oliveira · Aves |
| 39' | 🟨 | Guilherme Lazaroni · Portimonense |
| 51' | ⚽ | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 75' | ⚽ | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Quentin Beunardeau · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 273.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1421.18 | 1459.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.40 | -19.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.78 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |