← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 46% | 48% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Boavista win | 25% | 23% | 3.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 30' | 🟥 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
| 40' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rafael Lopes · Boavista |
| 86' | 🟨 | João Schmidt · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 90.00 | 393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1575.00 | 1510.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.49 | -13.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |