← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Feirense win | 25% | 29% | 3.95 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Anthony D'Alberto · Moreirense FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · Feirense |
| 53' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Feirense |
| 74' | ⚽ | Nenê · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 90.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1439.26 | 1487.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | 23.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |