← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 87% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 10% | 10.22 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 4% | 3% | 23.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
| 78' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 85' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Arango · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 484.00 | 1032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1874.03 | 1481.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.44 | -4.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |