← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Thu, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 71% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.83 | value: +19% |
| Chaves win | 9% | 8% | 11.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 21' | 🟨 | Perdigão · Chaves |
| 30' | 🟨 | Marcão · Chaves |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Chaves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
| 84' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 87' | 🟥 | Germán Conti · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 818.00 | 1214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1539.09 | 1917.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.00 | 1.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |