← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 24% | 26% | 4.13 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 25' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 43' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 936.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | — |
| elo | 1491.17 | 1398.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.78 | -13.17 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | — |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |