← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 87% | 87% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 6% | 10.52 | fair |
| Aves win | 4% | 6% | 26.02 | value: +69% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | João Félix · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 55' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Aves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Issam El Adoua · Aves |
| 62' | ⚽ | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 77' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1210.00 | 265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1915.82 | 1422.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.30 | -34.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.64 | — |
| state index | 1.66 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |