← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 40% | 36% | 2.42 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 31% | 38% | 3.10 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Nikola Jambor · Rio Ave FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
| 31' | 🟨 | João Schmidt · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Junio Rocha · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Junio Rocha · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟥 | Junio Rocha · Rio Ave FC |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Carlos Vinícius · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟥 | João Lucas · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | João Schmidt · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1786.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.50 |
| elo | 1511.66 | 1559.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | -1.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.25 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.25 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.75 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.40 |