← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 47% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.02 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 21% | 23% | 4.56 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jean Cleber · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 1301.00 | 539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1545.08 | 1493.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.73 | -1.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |